Bitcoin teeters at $95,000 as Trump acknowledges recession possibilities while bullish investors keep pouring billions into ETFs. Is crypto’s bull run at risk?

Bitcoin prices hovered around the $95,000 mark on Monday following a nearly 3% decline over the weekend, as market sentiment remains cautious amid mixed economic signals from the White House. President Donald Trump has acknowledged the possibility of a recession while simultaneously pushing forward with controversial trade policies that could impact financial markets.

Trump’s Economic Tightrope

According to a Wall Street Journal report published Sunday, President Trump is attempting to balance concerns about economic downturn while continuing to implement aggressive trade and fiscal strategies. A senior administration official revealed that the White House plans to announce at least one deal with a country seeking to avoid higher tariffs this week.

Despite facing criticism both internally and from prominent figures like Warren Buffett, Trump continues leveraging tariffs as a tool to boost American manufacturing. Buffett, breaking his typical silence on tariff policies, criticized the protectionist approach during Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting, stating plainly: “Trade should not be a weapon.”

Meanwhile, Congress is working to develop a tax-and-spending bill aimed at providing economic stability, though tensions with China and uncertain economic indicators persist. In a Sunday interview, Trump acknowledged recession possibilities but maintained his policies would ultimately drive an economic boom in the United States, while attempting to distance current economic conditions from former President Biden’s legacy.

Mixed Economic Signals

The financial landscape presents contradictory indicators. Recent stock market gains and better-than-expected employment figures for April suggest underlying economic resilience. However, economists remain concerned that ongoing trade policies and tariff implementations could eventually trigger an economic slowdown.

This uncertainty has increased risk-off sentiment in the market, potentially harming volatile assets like Bitcoin. Should economic conditions continue to deteriorate, investors might pivot away from cryptocurrencies toward safer investments like gold.

On-Chain Analysis Shows Profit-Taking

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics reveal that holders are booking profits, according to Santiment’s Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) indicator, which calculates daily network-level Return On Investment based on on-chain transaction volume.

Strong spikes in NPL indicate that Bitcoin holders are, on average, selling their positions at significant profits. The metric showed multiple such spikes last week, suggesting increased selling pressure as investors lock in gains from the recent rally.

Institutional Demand Remains Strong

Despite individual investors taking profits, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains robust. SoSoValue data shows that US spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded total inflows of $1.81 billion last week, following $3.06 billion in inflows the previous week. Continued strong institutional investment could potentially support further price appreciation despite short-term selling pressure.

Technical Analysis Points to Short-Term Weakness

Bitcoin’s price action on the 4-hour chart reveals weakness in momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a lower high while the price formed a higher high on Friday, creating a bearish divergence that often precedes a trend reversal or pullback. Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator indicator moved below its neutral zero line on Sunday, suggesting bearish momentum building.

If the downward movement continues, Bitcoin could extend its decline to test support around $92,580.

Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin recently tested and faced rejection at the $97,700 resistance level on Friday before declining nearly 3% over the following two days. If this correction continues, Bitcoin could potentially test the key support level at $90,000.

The daily RSI currently reads 60 after being rejected from overbought territory (70) on Friday, indicating fading bullish momentum. If the RSI drops below its neutral level of 50, it would signal strengthening bearish sentiment. The MACD indicator is approaching a bearish crossover, which would provide a sell signal if it occurs.

However, if Bitcoin recovers and breaks above the $97,700 resistance level, it could potentially extend gains toward the psychologically important $100,000 mark that many investors are watching closely.